It might be time for White Sox fans to start believing in a playoff push

It was only two years ago that the Chicago White Sox set a new record in futility, winning only 41 of their 162 games. This time around, the White Sox might surpass that total by July 1. The White Sox have quietly become one of baseball’s most slept-on stories, entering Memorial Day weekend at 25–24. We wouldn’t fault anyone for focusing on the White Sox being only three games out of first place.

However, the more impressive story is far simpler: the White Sox have an outside chance at avoiding 100 losses without massively upgrading their roster. The White Sox deserve kudos for leaving their failures behind We typically don’t see Manager of the Year go to those who don’t reach the postseason. Will Venable is certainly making his case to be the exception. Respectfully, the fact that the White Sox are even hovering around .500 this late in the year is absolutely remarkable.

Chicago’s ace is Davis Martin, a 29-year-old righty who has somehow recorded 3.0 bWAR before June 1. Although their .235 team average ranks among the sport’s lowest, they’ve managed an impressive .728 OPS. Japanese import Munetaka Murakami has earned all the headlines, mashing 17 home runs with a .934 OPS. Chicago’s most valuable hitter analytically, though, is third baseman Miguel Vargas and his 2.0 bWAR.

The White Sox are also staying afloat despite disappointing offensive starts from top prospects Colson Montgomery and Chase Meidroth. It’s still too early to deem the White Sox playoff contenders As things stand, Baseball-Reference gives the White Sox nearly a 22 percent chance to reach the postseason in a crowded AL Central. Probability is one thing. Reality is another.

As great of a story as the White Sox winning the division would be, they just don’t have the depth required to pull it off. For the White Sox to even sniff the playoffs, they need their young core to get it going. Catcher Edgar Quero is already worth -0.5 bWAR with a .461 OPS. Martin would need to sustain his impressive first two months, and there’s no established starter behind him to pick up any potential slack.

Then, there’s the Murakami question. Power only means so much if you can’t make contact, and he’s striking out in nearly 33% of his plate appearances. Luckily for Murakami, he can work through the necessary adjustments outside of a major market. Imagine the pressure if he played for the Mets or Dodgers.

We’ve reached a point in the season where it’s fair to ask what realistically would be a successful White Sox season. Given the context, no one can deem this year a failure if the White Sox miss the postseason. Entering the season, the White Sox should have been thrilled if they won at least 63 games. That’d be an incredible turnaround from their 41–121 finish two years ago.

First, it’ll be 63 wins. Tomorrow, the world! Alright, maybe not the world, but at least the White Sox will hit Memorial Day with more wins than the Mets. Who had that on their 2026 MLB season bingo card?

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