Chelsea: How Manchester United and Liverpool can help Blues qualify for Champions League

Chelsea still have hope in their pursuit of playing Champions League football under new head coach Xabi Alonso next season. Chelsea’s chances of a top-five finish were dashed following a 3-1 home defeat to Nottingham Forest on May 4, which was their sixth consecutive loss in the Premier League.

Meanwhile, the 1-0 loss to Manchester City in the FA Cup final at the weekend denied them a trophy as well as a spot in the Europa League. Arsenal, Man City, Manchester United and Aston Villa have all secured their seats at Europe’s top table next season, with Liverpool firm favourites to round out the top five. The Premier League’s top five are guaranteed Champions League football next season, with England set to top UEFA's European Performance Spots (EPS) for the second season running. EPS awards extra places in the Champions League to the two leagues with the best overall record across their three European competitions each season.

But sixth place will also earn a backdoor route to the Champions League - though only on one condition. Bournemouth currently occupy sixth place in the Premier League table, four points off Liverpool in fifth and have a game in hand which comes on Tuesday night at home to title-chasing Man City. Chelsea have dropped to tenth, six points off the Cherries and are significant outsiders to leapfrog four other teams in the final week of the Premier League campaign.

But hope remains, albeit faint, and it’s all down to Aston Villa winning the Europa League... and finishing fifth. Villa face Freiburg Europa League final on Wednesday night in Istanbul, and the winners of that competition automatically qualify for the Champions League. If Villa finish fourth in the Premier League and win the Europa League, then there is no change to the qualification spots. Villa would qualify for the Champions League as Europa League winners and via their Premier League finish.

However, if Villa finish in the fifth EPS-awarded spot and win the Europa League, they would qualify for the Champions League as Europa League winners while the EPS spot would move to the team below them in sixth. Villa will finish fifth if they lose to Man City on the final day and Liverpool beat Brentford. This is because Unai Emery’s side, despite beating the Reds 4-2 last Friday, have an inferior goal difference and would therefore drop a place if the two teams finish level on points. If Villa live up to their end of the bargain, there is still plenty of work for Chelsea to do in order to finish sixth.

Chelsea will qualify for the Champions League if the following scenarios play out: Chelsea have not won a Premier League match since beating Villa on March 4, so they are by no means guaranteed to record back-to-back wins over Spurs and Sunderland to keep their faint hopes of Champions League qualification alive.